Happy New Year - bye 2016 hi 2017

[Holden202T]

Happy new year all!

[immortality]

China has made its plan of global domination obvious. 1st it wants the SCS (South China Sea), then once it successfully stops freedom of navigation in the international waters within the SCS it will attempt to take Taiwan (they will want to do it peacefully but will use force if required). After than China wants more control of what it deems to be its traditional sphere of influence. That will include all the SE Asian archipelago, and into the Indian Ocean. Some even say China claims eastern Africa as being part of its sphere of influence and there is archaeological and historical evidence to support this.

Russia's (more correctly Putin's) plan is to reform the USSR albeit under the CIS. He is on record as saying the greatest catastrophe and crime of the 20th C is the collapse of the USSR. He has kept an iron grip on the Central Asian Republics and paid to keep radical Islam under control in those countries under the premise that they will support Russia if the time comes. People like Karamazov (who died last year, 2016) that placed political opposition into boiling vats of oil thus cooking the person alive got away with it because Putin won't let anyone do anything about it. Let's not forget Putin also flattened Grozny (in order to stop the disintegration of Russian territory and control on Chechnya) when he was Yeltsin's PM when Yeltsin was nothing more than Putin's puppet anyway. Then we have the invasion of Georgia in 2008 apparently in order to protect Russians but he attacked Russians who stood in his way. The Annexation of Crimea, which he denied but later admitted to, the war in Eastern Ukraine, and the new fond support for Assad in Syria who has flattened, with Putin's help one of the oldest cities on the planet, bombed hospitals, schools, civilian refugee camps eve though Assad knows these things are in the locations that have been attacked (not once but many times a week). These things are no accident rather they are carefully planned. I could go into MH17 but the evidence is plastered everywhere so It would just be parroting what the world already knows.

Trump is to stupid to know that he is a pawn in Putin's plan. Trump has annoyed China by taking a phone call from the Taiwanese President. This plays into Putin's hand quite well because historically the USSR and China disliked each other intensely as they both believed they were the centre of Communism. Trump rumping up to Putin while side lining China opens up old wounds between the 2 Asian superpowers. Putin opening talks with Japan over islands that Russia occupied after WW2 finished suggesting a sharing arrangement of the islands while China tells Japan its new military policy of entering into new theatres of war if Japans interests and allies need protecting is also putting a wedge between Russia and China.

I do believe we are in for a rough time, both politically and economically, this year. Australia is heading into a technical recession but all in all I'm glad I'm in Australia, let the denizens of the northern hemisphere fight out their wars. I'm to old, and not medically fit enough anyway, to go to war and I wouldn't go into a war in another country anyway. I always thought NZ had the right idea telling the US it wasn't going to be allowed to park any of its nuclear fleet in NZs territorial waters. It's about time we had enough guts to do the same.

I see the US - China thing coming to a head and Russia will do what it wants whilst no-one is paying much attention. The SCS could potentially be the flash point for WW3 as China lost in the international court on that issue but is ignoring the ruling and the US has been pushing the position of free navigation in the SCS.

The middle East could also get interesting if Trump ramps up support for Israel which is likely after Obama gave em the big middle finger at the UN last week.

2017 going to be much more interesting than 2016. HAppy new year!

[MAGP]

I see the US - China thing coming to a head and Russia will do what it wants whilst no-one is paying much attention. The SCS could potentially be the flash point for WW3 as China lost in the international court on that issue but is ignoring the ruling and the US has been pushing the position of free navigation in the SCS.

Don't forget Japan has said it will resume whaling in the Great Southern Ocean, what route will they take to get there? The SCS and SE Asian archipelago was their usual route. Will they dare go through an area China has militarised? Will the US support freedom of navigation for a fleet that is breaking international law by resuming whaling?

The middle East could also get interesting if Trump ramps up support for Israel which is likely after Obama gave em the big middle finger at the UN last week.

The middle east is now a proxy war. Will Trump pull out? Nope, not now he has opened his mouth in support of Israel. Will he defend Israel if Israel is attacked by Iran or rogue Syrian forces (remember Russia is allied to both countries)? I doubt it. Putin has played this extremely well. Trump is trapped but doesn't know it. He either supports Israel and therefore takes on Russia and its allies going against his public ideology and losing face in front of the American people who voted for him or he leaves Israel to defend itself thus breaking 50 years of Republican, actually bipartisan US, policy alienating himself from his own party. It must be noted US policy has never been to support Israeli settlements, they either abstained from votes or simply vetoed them. Obama has shown he is his own man by not vetoing the resolution or abstaining from it put forward by NZ and a couple of other countries. What a pity Australia didn't do the right thing.

2017 going to be much more interesting than 2016. HAppy new year!

Yep, you too

P.S. I apologise for the lengthy replies here, topics like this are a speciality of mine.

[immortality]

The problem with Israel is that they are nuclear armed and are very powerful with conventional forces too.

If the US doesn't step in than it effectively lets Israel of the leash, the last thing anybody wants is another 6 day war that lasts a lot longer and Israel marches a lot further across the map. Iran may be tough but I don't think they have the resolve that the entire Israeli population has. Other than Syria/Iran most other countries wouldn't want to get involved. Russia can't attack directly either or the US would definitely intervene so that gives Israel a fair bit of the map between itself and Iran. Syria (without direct support from Putin) is weak as buggery really. To date Israel is launched a number of strikes into Syria when it suspected Iranian weapons were been smuggled to forces likely to strike Israel without response from Syria and that is not likely to change in the near future.

Freedom of navigation has very little to do with the jap whaling fleet (China can sink it for all I care) but a good percentage of the world trade that passes through those waters. I doubt the US would turn a blind eye to it.

[psyolent]

well if they do decide to start having a crack i don't think the outcome will be all too favourable for us as a specie. it will definately involve nukes and we know how that will end.

[immortality]

well if they do decide to start having a crack i don't think the outcome will be all too favourable for us as a specie. it will definately involve nukes and we know how that will end.

Exactly, as a people the holocaust is still fresh in the mind and as such they will defend to the death with every means at their disposal including the nukes everybody knows they have and that is the reason the US always has and always will step in when it comes to matters of Israel and her defense.

[MAGP]

Israel has, in my not so humble opinion, one of the best conventional military forces on the planet let alone the middle east. Compulsory military service, like Switzerland and Russia, tends to do that. Being able to flog and take territory off their closest neighbours in multiple, wars when they are surrounded by hostile nations who literally wanted to see Israel wiped of the map is a great indication of their conventional military capabilities. When countries like Egypt, which has for most of its modern sovereign existence been under some level of military rule, and Jordan ask for peace treaties because they have been flogged multiple times people have to take notice of how well Israel is organised to defend itself using conventional methods.

Israel's nuclear capability is not really known. No one outside of Israel has seen any real evidence of a military offensive nuclear capability.
Bibi is a big talker, just like Erdogan the Turkish President, but he really doesn't act as big as he talks. I think Israel is pulling a bluff with regards to its alleged nuke abilities.
Would I be willing to test it out? Nope, and Israel is depending on the fact that people don't want to test the waters to see if they do indeed have a military offensive nuke capability.